Wells Flynn
08/26/2024 · Primary School
(CO 3) Fifty-four percent of US teens have heard of a fax machine. You randomly select 12 US teens. Find the probability that the number of these selected teens that have heard of a fax machine is exactly six (first answer listed below). Find the probability that the number is more than 8 (second answer listed below). \( 0.284,0.160 \) \( 0.217,0.120 \) \( 0.284,0.120 \) \( 0.217,0.280 \)
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Step-by-step Solution
To solve this problem, we can use the binomial probability formula, which is given by:
\[
P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}
\]
where:
- \( n \) is the number of trials (in this case, 12 teens),
- \( k \) is the number of successes (the number of teens who have heard of a fax machine),
- \( p \) is the probability of success (54% or 0.54),
- \( \binom{n}{k} \) is the binomial coefficient, calculated as \( \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \).
### Part 1: Probability that exactly 6 teens have heard of a fax machine
Here, \( n = 12 \), \( k = 6 \), and \( p = 0.54 \).
Calculating \( P(X = 6) \):
\[
P(X = 6) = \binom{12}{6} (0.54)^6 (0.46)^{12-6}
\]
Calculating \( \binom{12}{6} \):
\[
\binom{12}{6} = \frac{12!}{6!6!} = 924
\]
Now calculating \( (0.54)^6 \) and \( (0.46)^6 \):
\[
(0.54)^6 \approx 0.0457
\]
\[
(0.46)^6 \approx 0.0150
\]
Now substituting these values into the formula:
\[
P(X = 6) = 924 \times 0.0457 \times 0.0150 \approx 0.640
\]
### Part 2: Probability that more than 8 teens have heard of a fax machine
To find \( P(X > 8) \), we can calculate \( P(X = 9) + P(X = 10) + P(X = 11) + P(X = 12) \).
Calculating each of these probabilities using the binomial formula:
1. **For \( k = 9 \)**:
\[
P(X = 9) = \binom{12}{9} (0.54)^9 (0.46)^3
\]
\[
\binom{12}{9} = \binom{12}{3} = 220
\]
\[
(0.54)^9 \approx 0.0247
\]
\[
(0.46)^3 \approx 0.0973
\]
\[
P(X = 9) \approx 220 \times 0.0247 \times 0.0973 \approx 0.052
\]
2. **For \( k = 10 \)**:
\[
P(X = 10) = \binom{12}{10} (0.54)^{10} (0.46)^2
\]
\[
\binom{12}{10} = \binom{12}{2} = 66
\]
\[
(0.54)^{10} \approx 0.0133
\]
\[
(0.46)^2 \approx 0.2116
\]
\[
P(X = 10) \approx 66 \times 0.0133 \times 0.2116 \approx 0.184
\]
3. **For \( k = 11 \)**:
\[
P(X = 11) = \binom{12}{11} (0.54)^{11} (0.46)^1
\]
\[
\binom{12}{11} = 12
\]
\[
(0.54)^{11} \approx 0.0072
\]
\[
(0.46)^1 \approx 0.46
\]
\[
P(X = 11) \approx 12 \times 0.0072 \times 0.46 \approx 0.040
\]
4. **For \( k = 12 \)**:
\[
P(X = 12) = \binom{12}{12} (0.54)^{12} (0.46)^0
\]
\[
\binom{12}{12} = 1
\]
\[
(0.54)^{12} \approx 0.003
Quick Answer
(a) The probability that exactly 6 teens have heard of a fax machine is approximately 0.640.
(b) The probability that more than 8 teens have heard of a fax machine is approximately 0.052 + 0.184 + 0.040 + 0.003 = 0.279.
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